ANALYSIS-Maoists an invisible hand in Nepal struggle
23 Apr 2006 06:43:44 GMT
Source: Reuters
Background
CRISIS PROFILE: What’s going on in Nepal?
By Raju Gopalakrishnan

KATHMANDU, April 23 (Reuters) - Weeks of violent protests against Nepal's King Gyanendra are headed in name by a seven-party alliance, but the invisible hand of Maoist guerrillas, who control over a third of the countryside, is dominating the campaign.

Analysts said the reason the parties rejected the king's offer on Friday to set up a government was the fear of alienating the hundreds of thousands who have staged violent anti-monarchy protests for over two weeks. And many of those appear to be Maoist supporters.

"The king's move meets one important aspect - the end of autocratic rule," said Yubaraj Ghimire, editor of the local Samay weekly. "Why are the parties not accepting? I think they are a bit scared of the crowd because they are not in direct communication with the crowd."

The parties have said the king has not addressed many of their demands - setting up a constituent assembly to frame a new constitution which will curb the monarch's powers and deciding how to bring the Maoists into the mainstream.

But analysts say the parties don't need the king for any of this, they could do it all once they were in power.

"They are not mustering the courage to say we will reinstate parliament, hold talks with the Maoists and announce formation of a constituent assembly," said Ghimire.

Nepal's two main political parties -- the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) -- shared power between 1990 and 2002. But their years in office were marked by internal squabbles and rising corruption - and the increasing influence of the Marxists.

"My real concern is that the successor government may end up being dominated by the Maoists," U.S. Ambassador James Moriarty said last week.

"The Maoists would under the current situation swing a lot of weight because they have the weapons and the parties do not."

The Maoist insurgency began in 1996 and over 13,000 people have been killed. The guerrillas control large swathes of the countryside, have their own local government in places and are even building a 90-km (60-mile) road through the mountains.

They collect taxes and run collective piggeries and fisheries.

Gyanendra sacked the party-based government in 2002 and assumed full power last year, vowing to crush the Maoists. His moves only brought the rebels and Nepal's opposition closer.

The insurgents now have a loose alliance with the seven parties and have said they will not conduct any armed operations in the Kathmandu valley to allow the anti-monarchy campaign to remain peaceful.

BOOST THE MOVEMENT

But they appear to have sent their supporters in to boost the movement. Local residents say many of those on the street have come from the countryside and they are the most aggressive of the protesters.

"Indications are the Maoists may not have sent armed cadres here, but have encouraged people to come in large numbers," said Ghimire.

Giant neighbour India, which is a battling a Maoist insurgency of its own, has been extremely worried about the guerrillas' growing influence.

New Delhi exerted pressure on King Gyanendra to offer the parties executive power, and is now using its influence with the alliance to accept. So too are the European Union and the United States.

Ghimire, the editor, said he expected the parties to form a government within the next few days. "You will have a fully empowered government with a sense of direction and purpose."

But Ambassador Moriarty said: "The end-game has gotten very tricky.

"For the parties it's going to be, how do they manage the Maoist part of the equation? Can they come up with a formula which brings them closer to the political mainstream without risking the political mainstream?

"I do think that a new democratic government will have a better shot at it because they do have international support, and it will have genuine democracy."

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2006/04/24/a_fractured_nepal_agrees_only_that_king_must_go/

A fractured Nepal agrees only that king must go
By Tim Sullivan, Associated Press | April 24, 2006

KATMANDU, Nepal -- The protesters crowding a road in a whistling, seething mass yesterday were clearly unified in their quest to force Nepal's king from power.

They roared their approval as a straw effigy of King Gyanendra was burned. They cheered demonstrators who dared to confront police. They chanted for a return of democracy and an end to royal rule. 'Gyanendra go now!" they shouted.

But that is where agreement ends.

Watching the demonstration from the stump of a roadside tree, recently chopped down by protesters to create a roadblock, a young lawyer saw little but contradiction. 'These people don't agree on anything -- only that the king should be gone," said Khamraj Khadka, 26, waving his hand at the 5,000 or so protesters.

Two weeks of demonstrations have regularly brought tens of thousands into the streets around Katmandu, and smaller crowds in other cities across this Himalayan nation, but under that surface unity is a deeply fractured political scene.

Politicians ousted when the king seized absolute control in 2005 want their power back, with a restored Parliament, but are widely despised for ineffectiveness and corruption. Maoist rebels want to end generations of feudal-style rule but have a long history of brutality in areas under their control. Many in the crowds of demonstrators know they have had enough of their king, but have thought little about what may come after.

The violence continued overnight, as police fired rubber bullets at protesters in the capital and hundreds of Maoist rebels stormed a town in eastern Nepal.

The rebels fought a six-hour gun battle with security forces in Chautara, attacking a jail and police station among other government buildings, a senior government official said today. Communication had been cut. 'It appears to be a pretty big attack," said the official, who declined to be named. 'District authorities have requested helicopter support, and we are rushing in reinforcements."

The political parties and the Maoists have been bitter enemies for years and still openly trade insults, leading many observers to worry that the country could descend into chaos.

While the king is desperately isolated, sealed inside his palace and kept in power only by the loyalty of his security forces, his opponents make little effort to hide that they can barely stand one another.

'Do I trust the Maoists? Of course not -- at least not completely," said Jhala Nath Khanal, a top official of the Communist Party of Nepal and a key intermediary between the opposition's seven-party alliance and the guerrillas. 'They talk about democracy now, but violence is a part of their philosophy."

The feelings are mutual.

'The very character of the seven-party leaders fluctuates," Matrika Prashad Yadav, a Maoist leader arrested in 2004, said in an interview in jail. 'If they're talking to the foreign powers, they say one thing. If they talk to us, they say another thing . . . So the people do not trust them."

Okay, I have not read the post as of yet ( I will ), but Maoists are in Ktm, participating; more precisely - invoking, & infiltrating for the "obvious" reasons. Let's not kid ourselves that they are not even there. Most of these serious haphazard have happened where -- no top secrete -- Maoists have a sound "civil" base.

But I am not against them participating in the movement. By all means they can - unarmed - of course, not only physically, but also mentally in the sense that they refrain from manipulating the crowd. I know I can be delusional at times. :)

Imagine the excitement of the Nepalese citizens if Maoists de-facto, without a shade of ambiguity, drops their weapon and come to mainstream to partake in peaceful protest. As high as the excitement seems to be portrayed in the media, I tend to divide it by half. For I, with my limited understanding, see majority of juvenile to young adults, who are excited indeed, but lacks direction, in the sense that they are in it because - well just because. Absolutely lack of leadership effect! But political parties are busy congratulating themselves; riding the waves for which their share should have been negligible, if any.

First hand - from the ground conversation with some absolutely apolitical and some relatively apolitical people gave me an understanding that they are impressed, yes, but have not subscribed to the notion that - "Kathmandu" is on the street. But anybody who is, is a Nepali as well.

If some credible person is to be believed, expect a clear picture by coming Friday. (Gumoon hint hint* ) Political parties made a smart decision by not giving in to Gyanendra immediately. Else, they would have lost all the credibility that they never had.

I am just worried that, as the old adage interprets: while the two cats fight, the monkey will get away with the bread.

But what do we care? We, the people, are not either. Let's not even go there now eh'!I know what you are thinking! ;)

IndisGuise :)

I might be wrong, but I agree with the above article.

Just a thought, who is not afraid of Bullets? General nepali people ,, hmm i dont think so, Maoist for sure, they are not afraid of bullets or death, as they are trained, brain washed accordingly. I am not saying general nepali people are not aware of the needs of country, but Maoist are the one on the front line where there are chances of Bullets.

I would say, the winner on the movement are Solely MAOIST.

We will see Prachanda and/or Baburam's leadership as well in the days to come, as Hamas are leading Palestine.

We are getting in there shortly.

Jai Nepal

Could this be the reason why we see more communist flag than the actual flag of Nepal in these protest? Shouldn't we be showing our solidarity using Nepal's flag instead?

For now I am just worried about my old parents all by themsleves force to participate in the rally ...... being patriotic and rushing to the raod is one thing but forcing people out of their homes is not democratic or is it???

And this is just the beginning. Once Maoists come into mainstream politics, we will see more undemocratic acts.

Good analysis. When will the SPA supporters learn about this?